Global surface temperatures surged by a record amount from 2014 to 2016, boosting the total amount of warming since the start of the last century by more than 25 percent in just three years, according to new University of Arizona-led research.
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| 2016 is officially the new warmest year on record, edging out previous record holder 2015 by 0.07°F, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 2016 was the third year in a row that global average surface temperature set a new record [Credit: NASA] |
The Earth's average surface temperature climbed about 1.6 degrees F (0.9 C) from 1900 to 2013.
By analyzing global temperature records, Yin and his colleagues found that by the end of 2016, the global surface temperature had climbed an additional 0.43 degrees F (0.24 C).
Co-author Jonathan Overpeck said, "As a climate scientist, it was just remarkable to think that the atmosphere of the planet could warm that much that fast."
The spike in warming from 2014 to 2016 coincided with extreme weather events worldwide, including heat waves, droughts, floods, extensive melting of polar ice and global coral bleaching.
The new research shows that natural variability in the climate system is not sufficient to explain the 2014-2016 temperature increase, said co-author Cheryl Peyser, a UA doctoral candidate in geosciences.
In the current paper, the researchers also projected how frequent such big temperature spikes would be under four different greenhouse emission scenarios. Record-breaking temperature jumps and the accompanying extreme weather events will become more frequent unless greenhouse gas emissions decline, the team found.
Figuring out the mechanism for the temperature spike built on previous work by Peyser, Yin and others.
The earlier work showed that although the Earth's surface warming had slowed from 1998 to 2013, heat from additional atmospheric greenhouse gases was being sequestered in the Pacific Ocean. The strong 2014-2015 El Niño roiled the ocean and released all the stored heat, causing a big jump in the Earth's surface temperatures.
"Our research shows global warming is accelerating," Yin said.