???spa??ste ??a ???? ??a ?a ?ef??ete ap? t?? ?a??µe???? d?a???t??? ???t??a ?a? ???te µ?a µat?? st? µ?????. ??a??t??e?te ??at?...??p???? ?????? ???? ??a ß?ade?a ??????µ??? a??pt???, ?aµ??? pa?a??????t?ta, epe?d?t??? s???????s? ?a? d??????µe?e? d?µ?s?e? dap??e?. T?ste ep?s?? st?? ea?t? sa? ?a? t? e??t?µa ??at? ?p????e? d?e???? ? d?µ???at?a, a??? pa??????a µe?a?????? ? ?a???sµ?? ?a? ? es?st??fe?a. ? ap??t?s? sta pa?ap??? e??t?µata ?a sa? e?p???e?. ?a p??a?afe??µe?a p??ß??µata de? e??a? ?µ???a t?? d?e????? d?µ???af???? ???a?s?? - p?a?µat??? ???????a?? ß?µßa, p?? p??a??tata ??p??a st??µ? ?a e??a?e? ?a? ??? ????? ?d?????? s???pe?e? ß?ßa?a.
??aß????ta? te?e?ta?e? e???se?? t?? ??e????? ??µ?sµat???? ?aµe??? (???) -??a t?? ?p??e? st?? ????da ??te ?a? a?af??? pe?? t?? ?p???e?? t??? ???eta?- e????a ?ata?aßa??e? ?a?e?? ?t?, e?d??? st?? a?apt??µ??? ??sµ?, ? a??d?s? «????????? s??ta???????» e??a? ?d? ??a s?ßa??tat? p??ß??µa ap? p????? p?e????. ?at? t? ???, pe?? t? 2050, d??ad? se 33 ?????a, t? ??st?? t?? pa???sµ?a? ???µat???????µ???? ???s?? t?? pe???d?? 2008-2009 ?a ????? µp??st? st? a?t?st???? t?? d?µ???af???? ???a?s??, ?????? st?? ???e? t?? G20. ?p??????e? ?ts?, ?t? a? ? ???s? ep?ß????e t?? d?µ?s????µ???? dap??e? t?? a?apt??µ???? ????? ?at? 10 p?s?st?a?e? µ???de? t?? ??? t???, t? p?s?st? a?t? stad?a?? ?a d?p?as?aste? t?? p??se?? t??a???taet?a.
? p????sµ?? t?? p???s??? ????? ?e???e? ??????a, e?? ?? ft???? ???e? a????????? µe d?af??? ????? de?aet???. S?µf??a µe t?? te?e?ta?a d?et? p????sµ?a?? p??ß?e?? t?? ???, ? d??µes? ?????a ??a ??e? t?? ???e? p???e?ta? ?a a????e? ??? t? 2050 sta 38 ?t?, ap? ta 29 ?t? p?? e??a? s?µe?a. G?a t?? ??a, µ???? ??a p?s?st? µ????te?? t?? 11% t?? pe??p?? 7 d?se?at?µµ????? a????p?? st?? ??sµ? e??a? ??? t?? 60 et??. ??se? t?? ?e?t????? p??ß?e??? t?? ???, ??? t? 2050 t? p?s?st? a?t? ?a ??e? a????e? st? 22% (µe p????sµ? ??? t?? 9 d?se?at?µµ?????) ?a? st?? a?apt??µ??e? ???e? st? 33%. ?e ???a ????a, st?? p???s?e? ???e? ? ??a? st??? t?e?? ?a e??a? s??ta???????, e?? s?ed?? ? ??a? st??? d??a ?a e??a? ??? t?? 80 et??.
????e?ta? ??a µ?a a??? a??? aµet????t? e??????, p?? e? ?a??? ?a ??e? te??st?e? ??????µ????, ?????????? ?a? p???t???? ep?pt?se??. ???? t? pa???, µ??? ???e? ???e? µe ?e?asµ??? p????sµ? a??????? ?a d?ap?st????? t?? s???pe?e?. ??t??t???, t? e??at??? d??aµ??? ?????a s????????eta?, e?? ? a???µ?? t?? s??ta??????? a????eta?. ?e??p?? ??? t? 2020 ? d?µ???af??? ???a?s? ?a e??a? eµfa???. ????sta, de? ?p???e? t??p?? d?af????: a? e?a???s??µe t?? te??st?e? f?s???? ?a? a????p??e?e?? ?atast??f??, ?? d?µ???af???? a??a??? e??a? p??? p?? ß?ßa?e? ap? ???e? µa???p???esµe? p??ß???e??, ?p?? p.?. ? ???µat??? a??a??. ?a 2 d?se?at?µµ???a ?t?µa p?? t? 2050 ?a e??a? ??? t?? 60 ????? ?d? ?e????e?.
??? ?fe??eta?, ?µ??, a?t? t? t?s? ??t??? ?a? t?s? s?ßa?? fa???µe?? t?? d?µ???af???? ???a?s??; ??at?????ta? se pa?a??te?? af????µa t?? pe???d???? The Economist, d?aß??e? ?a?e?? ?t? ?p?????? d?? µa???p???esµa a?t?a ?a? ??a pa??d??? fa???µe?? p?? ?a e?a???????se? ?a eµfa???eta? sta a???µ?t??? st???e?a ??a t?? p??se?e?? de?aet?e?.
? p??t?? s?µa?t???? ????? e??a? ?t? se ??a ta µ??? t?? ??sµ?? ? µ?s?? ???? ???? e??a? p??? ?????te??? ap’ ?,t? st? pa?e????. ? t?s? a?t? ?e????se µe t? ß??µ??a???? epa??stas? ?a? ??t?te a???????se a??d??? p??e?a.
?? 1900, t? µ?s? p??sd???µ? ???? ?at? t? ?????s? ??a ??? t?? ??sµ? ?f?a?e µ???? sta 30 ?t?, e?? st?? p???s??te?e? ???e? ß??s??ta? ??t? ap? ta 50 ?t?. S?µe?a, ?? a???µ?? a?t?? ????? d?aµ??f??e? a?t?st????? se 67 ?a? 78 ?t? ?a? e?a????????? ?a a??????ta?. ?? e?a???s??µe t??? f?ß??? ??a t?? epe???µe?? d?µ???af??? ???s?, a?t? e??a? ??t? ??a t? ?p??? ?a ?p?epe ?a e?µaste e????µ??e? - ?d??? ap? t? st??µ? p?? ?? ??????µ???? pa?aµ????? s?µe?a ???e??, se ?a?? f?s??? ?at?stas? ?a? e?e???? ??a p??? pe??ss?te?a ?????a.
?? de?te?? ?a? a??µ? s?ßa??te?? a?t?? t?? d?µ???af???? ???a?s?? e??a? ?t? ta p?s?st? t?? ?e???se?? se ??? t?? ??sµ? ????? µe???e?, µe ap?t??esµa ?? ?ea??? ?????a??? ?µ?de? ?a µ?? µp????? ?a a?t?sta?µ?s??? t?? ?????a a??a??µe?? a???µ? t?? ??????µ????. ? t?s? a?t? eµfa??st??e a???te?a ap? e?e??? t?? µe?a??te??? d????e?a? ????, a????? st?? a?apt??µ??e? ???e? ?a? e? s??e?e?a st?? ft????. St?? a???? t?? de?aet?a? t?? 1970 ?? ???a??e? se ??? t?? ??sµ? e?a????????sa? ?a ap??t??? ?at? µ?s? ??? 4,3 pa?d?? e??st?. S?µe?a ?e??????ta? ?at? µ?s? ??? 2,6 pa?d?? a?? ???a??a pa???sµ???, e?? st?? p???s?e? ???e? µ???? 1,6 pa?d??. S?µf??a µe p??ß?e?? t?? ???µ???? ?????, ??? t? 2050 ? a???µ?? a?t?? ?a ??e? µe???e? pa???sµ??? sta 2 pa?d?? a?? ???a??a, ?e????? p?? ?a ?atast?se? t? fa???µe?? t?? ???a?s?? t? ?d?? ??t??? pa?t?? ap? ta µ?sa t?? a???a ?a? µet?.
?? pa??d??? fa???µe?? p?? ep?te??e t?? s???pe?e? t?? ?p??e???t???t?ta? ?a? t?? µa??????a? e??a? ? p????sµ?a?? ?????? (baby boom) p?? ??aße ???a sta pe??ss?te?a p???s?a ???t? µet? t?? ?’ ?a???sµ?? ???eµ?. ? ?????? a?t? de? s???ß? ta?t??????? se ??e? t?? ???e?, ?µ?? st?? ?µe???? -?p?? t? fa???µe?? ?ta? p?? ??t???- d????ese s?ed?? ???????? t?? e???saet?a µet? t? 1945, pe???d? ?at? t?? ?p??a ?e??????a? s?ed?? 80 e?at?µµ???a ?????p??. ?? p??t?? ap? a?t??? ß?a????? t??a st? s??ta??. G?a ta ep?µe?a e???s? ?????a a?t? ? ?e??? t?? µetap??eµ???? p????sµ?a??? ??????? ?a p?????e? t?? t??e?? t?? s??ta???????, ?e????? p?? ?a ?d???se? se ?a?da?a pt?s? t?? e??at???? d??aµ???? se ??e? t?? p???s?e? ???e? t?? ??sµ??.
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S?µf??a µe t? µa?????????µ??? ?e???a, ?? ??????µ?e? t?? ????? p?? ?e????? a?apt?ss??ta? µe p?? a????? ???µ??? ap? e?e??e? t?? ????? µe ?ea??te?? p????sµ?. ?s? a????eta? ? a???µ?? t?? s??ta??????? ?a? µe???eta? ? a???µ?? e?e???? p?? t??? a?t??a??st???, t?s? s????????eta? t? e??at??? d??aµ???, µe ap?t??esµa t? µe??s? t?? pa?a????? (e?t?? a? ? pa?a???? a????e? µe ta??te???? ???µ???), ?a??? a?t?? p?? ?a s??e??s??? ?a e??????ta? ?a e??a? µe?a??te??? ?????a? ?a? s??ep?? p??a??tata ????te?? pa?a???????.
St?? pe??ss?te?e? p???s?e? ???e? ? ????? t?? a????p?? p?? ß??s???ta? se e???s?µ? ?????a p??? e?e????? p?? ß??s???ta? se ?????a s??ta???d?t?s?? ?a µe???e? d?aµat??? t?? p??se?e?? de?aet?e?. St?? ?ap???a, ??a pa??de??µa, a?t?st?????? t?e?? e??a??µe??? se ???e s??ta??????, ?d? µ?a ap? t?? ?aµ???te?e? a?a????e? st?? ??sµ? - ?a? ? a???µ?? ?a µe???e? st? µ?s? ??? t? 2050. ?a??t? de, e??a? ?e????? ?t? ?a p??pe? ?a s??t??????? ????te?a ?ea?? ?t?µa, t? ??st?? d?aß??s?? t?? pa?d??? e??a? ?aµ???te?? ap? e?e??? t?? ??????µ???? ?a? ? s??????? ep?ß????s? ?a e??a? p??? µe?a??te?? se s??s? µe t??a. ? ???a??sµ?? ??????µ???? S??e??as?a? ?a? ???pt???? (??S?) e?t?µ? ?t? t?? ep?µe?e? t?e?? de?aet?e? ? pt?s? t?? e??at???? d??aµ???? p?? s?et??eta? µe t? ???a?s? t?? p????sµ?? ?a µp????se ?a µe??se? t?? ??????µ??? a??pt??? st?? ???e? µ??? t?? ?at? ??a t??t?, s?????t??? µe t?? p??????µe?e? t?e?? de?aet?e?.
? d?µ???af??? ???a?s? ?a ep??e?se? ?a? t?? ???µat???????µ???? a?????. S?µf??a µe t? ?e???a pe?? ap?taµ?e?se?? p?? d?at?p?sa? ? Franco Modigliani ?a? ? Richard Brumberg, st?? a???? t?? de?aet?a? t?? 1950 ta ?t?µa p??spa???? ?a d?at???s??? ??a sta?e?? ep?ped? ?ata?a??t???? dapa??? ?at? t? d????e?a t?? ???? t???, ??de???ta? pe??ss?te?a ???µata st? ?ea?? ?a? t?? t??t? ?????a ?a? ap?taµ?e???ta? pe??ss?te?a ?ta? ß??s???ta? st? µ?s? ?????a. ?ts?, ?a??? ?? p????sµ?? ?e?????, ?? ap?taµ?e?se?? st?? ??????µ?a s??????? ?a e?a?t?????? ?a? ta pe????s?a?? st???e?a ?a p????????.
?p? a?t? p?? p???????ta? e????a ?ata?aßa??e? ?a?e?? ?t? a?t?? ?? d?µ???af???? e?e???e?? de? e??a? p???t??? ??d?te?e?. ?p?? µa? e?????se p??sfata st? ?a??s? ? 85?????? G????? ?a????t?? ????????????a? ???? ??????, ? d?µ???af??? ???a?s? ?p? ?a?est?? ?aµ???? a??pt???? ?a???e??e? aßeßa??t?te?, ?µµ??e? ?d?e?, f?ß?e? ?a? a???t??? p??d???es? ??a µeta????µ?se??. ?ts?, s?µa?t???? p????sµ?a??? ?at?????e? e??a? e????te? st?? ?a???sµ? ?a? t? d?µa????a. ?a?t??????? de, ???? ?a?p????sa? te???????a?, ap?µa??????ta? ap? t?? ??e? ?e????. ?a?at??e?ta? ???p?? ??a s?µa?t??? «ep????????a?? ???µa», p?? af’ ea?t? e??a? f???a? ?????????? a??s????p?a?.
«?? ??a a?t? de? s???st??? ???????a?? ß?µßa ??a t?? ???????e? µa?, t?te t? e??a?;», a?a??t????e ? ???? ?????? ?a? d?s???a ?a µp????se ?a d?af???se? ?a?e?? µa?? t??...
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