Institute For the Study Of War: Russia and Turkey Escalate: Russia’s Threat to NATO Goes Beyond Eastern Europe
Key Takeaway: Russia is waging a multi-front campaign against Turkey in order to weaken NATO in line with its strategic objectives. The use of a high-end Soviet-era MANPADS against a Turkish helicopter in southeastern Turkey on May 13, 2016 could indicate that Russia is providing meaningful military support to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) insurgency. The incident, if indeed a Russian escalation, is yet another Russian infringement of a sovereign NATO partner. Russia targeted the same pressure point by overflying Turkey with combat aircraft in November 2015, leading Turkish President Recep Erdogan to authorize the shoot down of a Russian plane. The U.S. rushed to de-escalate rather than backing Turkey in November, a signal that Erdogan does not have unequivocal NATO support. The provision of military support to the PKK thus offers Russia a surgical option to escalate against Turkey without provoking a response from the U.S. and NATO, especially because U.S. strategy against ISIS relies upon the Syrian Kurdish YPG, which has strong links to the PKK. It is a dangerous possibility that Russia will cultivate its relationship with the PKK in ways that undermine the U.S. and Turkey, even if the recent MANPADS event does not represent this inflection.
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WNU Editor: There is a lot of info in this report. The problem is that Turkey has been an unreliable ally .... threatening Europe with conditions and then flooding Europe with refugees, waging war against the Kurds, supporting rebel groups in Syria and then shipping them arms and God only knows what else .... and even President Obama has given up on the Erdogan administration. Yup .... Turkey has positioned themselves badly .... and it would not surprise me if Russia is now taking advantage of this to put pressure on the Erdogan government.
