While your Twitter and Facebook feed these days might be filled with stories about Iran, North Korea and ISIS, as well as the South China Sea, 2016 could be the year of a deadly clash between China and Japan—and the stakes could not be any higher for the United States.
A recent article in Foreign Policy sets the stage for such a clash—and shows how America could get sucked in. After a relatively peaceful year—if such a thing exists in the East China Sea—Beijing and Tokyo are once again warning each other to back off claims over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. With the rhetoric heading up, Foreign Policy reporters Dan De Luce and Keith Johnson headed over to the Rand Corporation for a war game that pitted China vs. Japan and eventually the United States. In the simulation, Tokyo’s treaty ally pledged to defend the island nation, including the disputed islands, from attack.
The scenario for the wargame was frighteningly realistic to say the least:
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WNU Editor: Both countries have had wars and conflicts in the past. Both countries are embroiled in a border dispute ..... Japan-China Maritime Dispute Back in the Spotlight (The Diplomat), and both countries are competing for influence throughout Asia .... China-Japan rivalry: Who will be Asia's master builder? (Michael Holtz, CSM). And while China has pursued policies that has isolated it from many of its neighbours .... China taking 'self-isolating' steps in South China Sea: Pentagon (Reuters), Japan does not have many friends either .... Philippine 'Comfort Women' Demand Justice Ahead of Japanese Imperial Visit (VOA). But I do know that war between Japan and China is not on the agenda for both countries .... far from it .... and this will probably be the case for a long time unless events go out of control in other parts of Asia that will drag Japan (or China) to become involved.