In Africa Confidential:
One of President Goodluck Jonathan's campaign advisors had it all figured out a few weeks before the presidential election on 28 March. 'Nigerian elections are all about regional loyalties and identities, religious and otherwise', he explained, stretching out a map of the country on the table. 'Our man,' said the advisor, who hailed from the Niger Delta, 'is going to win big in the South-South and the south-east, get all the Christian votes in the Middle Belt and the north – and there are more there than you think – and of course those sophisticated south-westerners will never vote for an austere Muslim like Buhari.'
As the trucks in Lagos say, 'No condition is permanent'. Thanks to the depth of the country's security and financial crises, together with smart campaigning by the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC), millions of southerners dropped their reservations about Muhammadu Buhari and backed him in droves (AC Vol 56 No 7, A moment of truth for the General). Middle Belt and northern Christians were so concerned about Jonathan's security failures that many defied stereotypical allegiances and voted for Buhari and the APC...[continue reading]
