(en) Anarkismo.net: US, Cuba and the geostrategic projection
by BrunoL (it, pt) [machine translation]
The gradual rapprochement between the US and Cuba was announced in 4th afternoon, December
17, with due solemnity. At the same time, US President Barack Obama and the commander in
chief (with general status) Raul Castro, informed the world and especially to Latin
America that relations between the two countries will undergo a progressive distension.
There are several possible lines of analysis to discuss the case. In this short text we
focus on the geopolitical dimension, within the US projection and their spheres of direct
and indirect influence in Latin America and the Caribbean. Also observe under a
geostrategic angle, the US concern over the increased presence of Chinese capital in Cuba
and to free membership of the Cuban head of state to a post-Deng Xiaoping Chinese line. I
recognize that for the Cuban society and the perception of the island as anti-imperialist
resistance of space in our continent, the home environment in the land of Jos? Mart? and
the counterparty of worms on the inside of the Cuban-American right is more relevant. I
leave that analysis for another time, concentrating now on the strategic aspect to the
States and not to the corresponding political and social forces.
Barack Obama e Ra?l Castro localizam interesses confluentes na reaproxima??o diplom?tica e
distens?o comercial; tal a??o pode gerar ganhos econ?micos binacionais e o consequente
enfraquecimento de posi??es ideol?gicas acirradas, por direita e por esquerda
Barack Obama and Ra?l Castro confluent interests located in the diplomatic rapprochement
and commercial strain; such action can generate binational economic gains and the
consequent weakening of bitter ideological positions, right and left
Washington sees with some temerity projection of China as an economic partner in Latin
America and with special participation in the axis of the member countries of Mercosur and
Unasur. Beijing is financing the construction of a sea route alternative to the Panama
Canal - the new Interoceanic Canal - through the Lake of Nicaragua and where will
important role the new port of Mariel, Cuba. This stunning piece of engineering - with
environmental costs and the native peoples of Nicaragua - brings a macabre irony.
Ironically the country of Sandino has its name in honor of Nicar?guan chief and such work
runs over the ancestral rights of these people! But, as you know, when there is reason to
state all other rights are regarded as secondary damage or "second-order costs." What
worries the Pentagon, beyond the dimension of routes to the class of Post-Panamax vessels
(warships with deeper draft than Channel in the Atlantic entrance of prisoners of Col?n,
Panama) is a striking fact, unthinkable in the Cold War period.
Since the missile crisis that there is a real chance of overt presence of Russian armed
war vessels in the region. The Kremlin offered his navy as protective force of the new
inter-oceanic route promoted by China. So if this project evolve in its fullness, the US
Southern Command would have on your side to a commercial-strategic alliance between China
and Russia, with cooperation treaty signed for 50 years and with the warehouse the Cuban
island. The US operate as protective force means between the Pacific and the Caribbean /
Atlantic, ensuring the "safety" of the Panama Canal despite the return of the territory of
the same and the fullness of operations to the Panamanian State in 1997. Therefore, the
presence Chinese in Cuba as a trading partner may result in a loss greater than the direct
influence represented by the military might of the Southern Command of the US military. To
avoid this, the Obama administration would be following in the footsteps of China itself
that began to finance its growth in the years '80 to facilitate the repatriation of
overseas Chinese capital escaped the country after 1949. The Obama administration affixed
to commercial interests and worldly families of Cuban origin, not leaving blackmail by the
bipartisan right that controlled the agenda of rapprochement with Cuba. Faced with the
challenge, the White House moved first. The US could not afford the luxury of not
participate in the expansion of capitalist processes within the state off your opponent by
more than 50 years.
The resumption of diplomatic relations and the easing of the economic blockade will be
effective in the very short term. Initial forecasts an increase of about 6 million
tourists, from 3 million in average visitor on the island for 9 million, the vast majority
of these Americans. Only with the tourism increase, and the consequent presence of US
hotel chains, the revenues from this industry would be equivalent to 25% of the Cuban GDP
per year. Sending transfer familiar kind of money can increase small capital flow mounts
(as a second income for thousands of family units), reinforcing the position of about
500,000 micro and small entrepreneurs now working in Cuba.
For his part, Raul Castro's government takes on new bargaining conditions on the powerful
partners - such as China and by extension, Russia - as well as to strengthen the side with
allies such as Brazil (investor in the port of Mariel already above). The Cuban side, it
is urgent to survive, increasing the switching condition in the emergency room in
commercial partnerships and exchange of key products is an imposition of the Cuban state.
Venezuela, whose trade with Cuba and contributions account for about 18% of GDP of the
island, it is seen today at a crossroads. On the international scene, the Miraflores
Palace and PDVSA are against the wall. By anchoring its revenue on oil exports, the gains
are reduced constantly, due to the fall in the price of this commodity handled by the
production of Saudi Arabia, with US encouragement, aiming to overthrow the gains of Yukos
and Russian Gazprom. Internally Venezuela also experiencing a period of political
instability that may result in the possibility of an overthrow of the government Maduro
(even elected) and a lock to the Chavista political bloc.
The will of the State Department to increase the contribution of Cuban-American capital
and the shipping time on the Internet for Cubans is also an operation of "hearts and
minds". With the proximity and historical ties of love and hate with the US, young people
from the 10 million Cubans, with the ideological weakening - also arising from the absence
of internal democracy and real possibility of non-statist social organization - can be
absorbed ideologically the universe of consumption (due to the scarcity) and cheap
technology. The Obama administration sees the economic blockade as ineffective way to
overthrow the Castro regime (with the regime today an opponent second ride) and ultimately
generate more cohesion to the State in the population of the island. More exposed to the
US way of life, Cubans could come to join ideologically to the world of sumptuous
consumption and individualism identifying themselves as well with the superpower. Thus,
reinforcing the US presence in his mare nostrum (the system Caribbean / West Indies),
preventing from Chinese commercial strategic projection with Russia as likely ally second
ride, but with military capability.
Unfortunately, this step heiress of the Cold War is overcome without an ideological and
strategic alternative to the satisfaction for Latin America and the Caribbean.
http://www.anarkismo.net/article/27719
