[machine translation]
The debate about the post-election scenario, contrary to what many expected, not
attenuated. Increases the intensity of the protests by right, and at the same time, opens
up a whole range of possibilities to put the elected government against the wall, further
diminishing its narrow scope. We can identify four possibilities within the complex
scenario where they perform simultaneous arenas of struggle. ---- These are: ---- - Direct
dispute Aetius Neves and the national leadership of the PSDB before the deconstruction of
the elected government, its goal is to accumulate electoral strength for 2018; they are
allied with the rightmost right that appealing to similar positions of the Venezuelan
opposition, challenging the fairness of the election and, by extension, its result
- The legal-political level, the CPI Petrobras reaching the middle of the presidential
coalition, which targets PT, PP and PMDB beyond the largest contractors in the country; in
this scenario, even cutting into the meat, the federation of state and regional oligarchs
serving the abbreviation of the PMDB is that more can benefit. To operate this Bloc?o and
the reorganization of the projection of its rightful leader, the PMDB Rio de Janeiro,
Eduardo Cunha
- Within the Plateau there is some lull, there is much possibility of friendly fire in CPI
Petrobras even more dangerous as a breakthrough, with the chance of not approving the
accounts of Rousseff's campaign
- The scenario is left for either inviting to the president; the logic is repeated with a
series of unfulfilled promises and the fragility of a government that even generates
cohesion in the party of government. From the platform of social movements - which left
the ruling social profile, more closely (if the CUT) or more distant (like MTST) until the
groupings further to the left (as who organized protests of 2013) the Lulism have bills to
pay with militancy and apparently they can only be agreed if the pressure comes from the
bottom up, conditioning tactical support (if the social base of government) or tacit (if
the national leadership of the SoL who can not take care operate as auxiliary line
government) towards some concrete measure of basic reforms.
Exposed four fronts where the government can be so shaken as to barred (if uncontrolled
movements of the CPI Petrobras derived from the Federal Police investigation in Operation
Lava Jato), analyze the texts that follow a distinct Brazilian politics at the present
time. This, start by right.
This weekend (Saturday, November 15) coincided with the holiday of the proclamation of the
republic through a coup staged without planning another attempt to articulate the right
opposition on a national scale. Armed with common sense UDN, the protests demonstrated how
conservatives are divided. I emphasize the obvious: the fact of being divided right does
not make it less dangerous.
If liberal Democrats see the cries with fear "military intervention", it is also possible
to observe a tacit use by high PSDB protests. These acts of repudiation to win the polls
of indirect democracy were summoned from a neoliberal stance, aligned with the new
Brazilian right (like the Millenium Institute and its allies). The protests also affect
the willingness to mobilize widows revived the coup, as Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro (PSC
S?o Paulo) and his supporters in conservative Pentecostal. These, represented by the
legend of PSC (the same party Marco Feliciano) and headed by "pastor" Everaldo, has a
political line likened to a hybrid between the Tea Party and the NeoCon US. These people
cry shamelessly defending some internal order, constitutional attribute of the Army, a
force of last resort to maintain the status quo.
The internal struggle this was not long, as opposed to the second Dilma has widespread
presence in social networks and operates through midiatizadas figures. Lobao, for example,
risk what's left of his reputation (if anything was left ....) mingling with people like
Olavo de Carvalho (in the role of the organic intellectual of the right, trying to be the
ecumenical figure among conservatives) and sharing the road with State Representative
Colonel Telhada (PSDB-SP). Even abandoning the act (cracked) of S?o Paulo and declaring
himself - through his personal Twitter account - as "betrayed by manipulating the
far-right" the former protest singer ends by back feeding those participating and those of
new version of the Walking with God for democracy! Apparently not take long to sizzle, as
saying the chorus sixties.
The "luck" of governismo is the limit of the right in its moralistic verve. This is
because, in Operation Lava Jato are under the magnifying glass of the largest contractors
in the PF Brazil and the neo-liberal right is limited by the criticism of Tropical
Bismarckism PT attacks on economic agents. President Dilma at full meeting of the G-20 has
already anticipated this problem, trying to defend the contractors (per table, asking
careful with generalization) and Petrobras. Attack the state (mixed capital) of Brazilian
oil was never a problem for Lacerda himself and for his descendants; since the attack on
the top national business was always something contained.
The epicenter of national politics is in S?o Paulo
The post-election scenario is still open and has its epicenter in S?o Paulo in two
simultaneous shocks: one, tactical order and seeking electoral accumulation, opposes the
mayor Fernando Haddad - PT mayor and former minister of Lula - before the Palacio dos
Bandeirantes, the toucan Alckmin reelected. Arena already mentioned at the beginning of
this analysis, mark the struggle for social and left with some participation of leftist
politics (scenario where the PT organic little or nothing gets) before the impeachment
threat from the extreme right and neo-liberal, which added and identified in the second
round campaign can have on Snows Aetius the Brazilian Henrique Capriles.
Evidenced the epicenter conclude this analysis questioning: - Does the unit by left starts
with the closest sectors of critical support Lulism? Would it not be appropriate to tie a
letter of basic reforms, a program of popular measures, such as the program marked by the
CAB in his statement "vote" in the last election time?
Writing as an analyst who takes a stand and makes explicit their own political and
ideological references (because these words have ties to the libertarian line, balancing
myself between my wants and analytical rigor) point out the following. Any action, claim
or gear that can clear the government and at the same time give the struggle required for
grotesque right that articulates reinforcing the Brazilian version of Capriles; any action
in this regard is welcome. The political and social forces should the left (understand
well, twist to occur) to enforce run your program (such as agrarian reform, democracy
media, urban reform, political reform to direct democracy) and not leave a shadow of doubt
are not operating as an auxiliary line Lulism. If this distrust thrive goodbye policy
initiative by the base. Ever the strength of the concrete claim take to the streets, the
game can turn. On the street, the forces of the people are always unbeatable.
