Anarkismo.net, Brazil, Initial analysis of national elections in the first round by BrunoL (pt)

[machine translation]

Dilma Rousseff (PT) had approximately 41.60% of the votes, followed by Aetius Neves (PSDB) 
with 33.56% of the votes and Marina Silva (PSB) with 21.32% of the vote. This is the 
approximate frame after almost all cleared polls. We can come to different conclusions of 
the process. Before it is an immediate picture accompanied by a narrative of the previous 
days of the first round. ---- Dilma Rousseff (PT) had approximately 41.60% of the votes, 
followed by Aetius Neves (PSDB) with 33.56% of the votes and Marina Silva (PSB) with 
21.32% of the vote. This is the approximate frame after almost all cleared polls. ---- The 
eve of the election and the polls that almost never hit ---- Accompanying the polls 
released on the eve of the first round, since we saw the real possibility of Aetius Neves 
heading to the second round. Marina even if it passes, (not passed) already comes with a 
lot of wear. I already wrote that Lulism second only to themselves, or their dissent. Made 
a construct stating that Marina was the "Lulism itself", and mingled with the myth by 
stating "it is not a speech, it's a life." The problem was that, you want to run for the 
executive position of seventh economy in the world like a beatified character, free from 
criticism and pointing to the "new"
.
What is not understood is how the staff of Marina and even before with Eduardo Campos, 
decided to approach a card-carrying neoliberal like Eduardo Gianetti da Fonseca and Andr? 
Lara Resende ?! The second was the BNDES president when the scandal Auction of Telebr?s 
being the table PBX (telephone exchange of the headquarters of the development bank) 
stapled. Marina's supporters could trace these same alliances, but without bringing them 
to the public. Add to that the presence of Neca Set?bal as eminence grise in the Marina 
program and did not resist. The former senator stuck to this toucan flirting and being 
systematically attacked by demonstrating weakness and a faltering PSB, could not resist. 
You can even go to the second round, but enough already shaken, as someone who has shot 
and injured following fighting.

In the second round between the PSDB and PT, the country will witness a very Brazilian 
polarization. The former left that still maintains distributive commitments being faced 
with neoliberalism to tupiniquim fashion. With Aetius, banking goes crazy with joy and the 
media as well, starting with the leading broadcaster. Invite anyone to think I'm 
"imagining things" to resume coverage before the elections (the Saturday, September 4) for 
stating the obvious. In the second round, we will be spending R $ 2.50 dollar and 
speculators wanting to repeat the 2002 R $ 4.00; a terrible media pressure and the 
production of media events through the investigations of Petrobras and the plea bargaining 
Alberto Youssef and Paulo Roberto Costa. The PT will react with the vote and useful 
comparison between governments. The Lulism should win - at least is the favorite - this 
election also in the second round.

The consensus and the key ideas manifest in the last debate of the 1st round

Impressive to note that the basic ideas of neoliberalism suffer from widespread rejection 
of the electorate. If the tracking surveys conducted by majoritarian candidates block 
controversial points, so the actual lived experience of millions of Brazilians in two lost 
decades (from the '80, with stagflation) and the '90 (without inflation, but with the 
dismantling of protection and the state as a public entity) generated a kind of collective 
consciousness that spans operations silencing of corporate media and even spurious 
judgments of the ruling elites.

Translation: even if the economic program of Aetius and Marina flertem with the release of 
financial capital and the creation of a power parastatal with the independence of BC 
(dependent and independent policy of banks and speculators) none of them can say that in 
aloud. Whoever does it, loses badly, although possibly lose in the second round.

Pointing out the first conclusions

At this time, the first 24 hours after the polls closed, the Lulism favorite and continues 
to be the key to victory at the polls is the loyalty of the Rio Neopentecostals votes, 
voter Requiao of Paran?, in the rise of the PT in Bahia (going for the third government) 
and the campaign in Minas Gerais, where the PT candidate won the state government in the 
1st round. Scares the PT expressive voting in Sao Paulo, the likely defeat in Rio Grande 
do Sul and the unpredictability of the state executive of the PMDB. Panic PT Marina 
possible approach to the campaign of Aetius and the evident fragmentation that will suffer 
the party structure of the PSB. With a third of the votes of Marina and Dilma wins with 
ease. Pernambuco can decide this election.

Dilma will be required to act as Serra did when he ran against her in 2010 and against 
Lula in 2002 will need to establish the speech "be afraid". The social fear is the 
possibility - nothing unequivocal - that a toucan government would dismantle the state 
apparatus strengthened by PT and led by oligarchs, and gradually removing the shy programs 
income distribution coalition.

In the years '90, former Central Bank President Cardoso, Gustavo Franco (predecessor 
Arminio Fraga) stated that "remains to be neoliberal or neoidiota". Times have changed and 
also the consensus, including Washington. If coordination of tucana campaign literally say 
what he thinks, the successor of Luiz In?cio be reelected.