Diptesh Soni writing in CFR:
The challenge for Nigeria:...The notion of a “demographic dividend” in Africa seems largely misguided, and should not be passively viewed as inevitable. The dividend arises when fertility rates fall due to better health outcomes, but this process has been slow to arrive in Africa. Some claim that a large pool of labor can provide an engine of growth through expanded light manufacturing, but the fact is that African labor markets are currently unable to absorb a vast and growing supply of workers. With some notable exceptions, low-wage manufacturing jobs have remained in Asia and the steady growth in labor saving technology also bodes poorly for a manufacturing revolution in Africa, all while service-led growth has severe limitations.
Akintunde Akinleye/Courtesy Reuters
...No country exemplifies the challenges and ambiguities of demographic and economic growth like Nigeria. News of Nigeria overtaking South Africa as the largest economy on the continent was met with much excitement. However, with a rapidly growing population of almost 180 million and an adjusted GDP per capita less than one fifth of South Africa’s, Nigeria is desperately poor by any measure. Its economy remains dependent on oil exports and much of the new foreign investment ventures are directed at tapping the growing market for fast-moving consumer goods, rather than expanding labor absorbing industries.More here
With little economic diversification and a weak education system the chances that Nigeria’s youth of today or tomorrow will find productive employment and sustainable livelihoods are reduced. A population that is both underemployed and undereducated breeds an environment of discontent that can provide a large recruitment base for extremist groups like Boko Haram.