From Nigeria Health Watch
More herePrologue
We are putting up this post as a result of increasing demand for information on this disease. As of today, the 7th of August 2014 there have been 9 cases (2 probable, 7 suspect) on Ebola Virus Disease in Nigeria and 2 deaths. All nine cases have been known primary contacts of the index case in Nigeria; Mr Sawyer. At this point therefore, as far as we know, while there has been transmission in Nigeria, it is limited to contacts of the primary case. There is no confirmed community transmission i.e. further transmission from any of the currently infected cases.
This is significant because the rest of this post has to be interpreted in this context. If community transmission occurs –it changes the scenario significantly. However, given that the contacts of each case will need to be under close observation, and using a conservative estimate of 3 contacts for each case, there will be over 100 people under close observation at the moment. If any of them develops symptoms, this will change the picture dramatically.
