An armed man stands guard as people wait for humanitarian medical aid near the mayor's office in Slaviansk July 9, 2014. Credit: Reuters/Gleb Garanich
More Ukrainian Soldiers Killed; France, Germany Press Putin -- Reuters
(Reuters) - Ukrainian forces regained more ground but sustained further casualties on Thursday in clashes with separatists, while two Western allies urged Russia's Vladimir Putin to exert more pressure on the rebels to find a negotiated end to the conflict.
Government forces have recently gained the upper hand in the three-month conflict against separatists in the Russian-speaking eastern regions in which more than 200 government troops have been killed as well as hundreds of civilians and rebel fighters.
The Ukrainian military says it has a plan to deliver a "nasty surprise" to the heavily-armed separatists who have dug in Donetsk, a city of 900,000 people, after being pushed out of their bastion in Slaviansk at the weekend.
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My Comment: I traveled through this area of Ukraine a few times about a decade ago and I am very familiar with the geography .... it is the perfect place for partisan/guerrilla warfare. It is also predominantly Russian .... and after what has happened in the past two months .... I have been told that no one in this part of the country has any positive feelings towards Kiev. France and Germany can press Putin all that they want .... but on the ground in this part of Ukraine .... Putin has minimal if any influence.
My prediction still holds that Ukraine military/militia forces will lay siege to the large cities of Donestk and Luhansk in the hope that after 2 - 3 months the morale among the rebel fighters will be low, and the civilian population who are trapped will be "fed-up" with the fighting and will welcome any Ukraine military intervention .... and while this is what the Ukraine leadership are planning .... I am expecting the opposite to occur. The Ukraine military will eventually storm the cities .... probably at the end of summer .... and I expect heavy casualties .... a few hundred Ukrainian soldiers killed, and on the other side a few thousand civilians and rebels killed. But instead of buying a victory and peace .... Kiev will have resentment and anger with a lingering hatred that will take generations to overcome .... and the fighting will still continue (albeit on a low intensity level.) .... especially since it is now a given that the Ukraine government will be forced to deploy military and militia forces on a permanent basis throughout this region.
Today's hit and run attacks .... and the use of an IED that killed two Ukrainian soldiers and injured scores of others .... is just a taste of what is about to come. And while I think ... correction .... I know that Kiev and the West are hoping that this conflict will be wrapped up by winter .... everyone that I know who lives there and/or has lived there are telling me the exact opposite .... that the long fight is about to begin.
Update: Ukraine Interior Ministry forecasts army operation to end within a month -- ITAR-TASS
Update #2: Donetsk Primed for Siege as Ukraine Army Hems In Rebels -- Bloomberg