What If Russia Invades Ukraine? -- Bennett Ramberg, National Interest
A look at the past could help Washington and its allies devise the proper response.
Despite the election of Petro Poroshenko as Ukraine’s president, the withdrawal of some Russian forces from Ukraine's border and efforts to move diplomacy along, the specter of a Kremlin military incursion remains as does the West’s befuddlement about what to do should an attack occur. In thinking through the problem, American decision makers would do well to examine how past presidents dealt with Moscow’s direct and proxy interventions during the Cold War and beyond.
History reveals four patterns. At one end, the United States relied on massive force in Korea and Vietnam. In response to Soviet suppression of revolts in East Germany (1953), Hungary (1956), and Czechoslovakia (1968), policy stopped at gawking and pouting. In Afghanistan (1979-89), Washington took a middle position joining economic and other sanctions with more significant military material assistance to resisters, while in Georgia (2008), it relied largely on diplomacy.
Read more ....
My Comment: I personally have doubts that Russia will invade eastern Ukraine under the present conditions .... the costs would be too high and there is no guarantee that they would be able to stabilize the situation. But if there is an invasion .... it would be because the Ukrainian civil war would have escalated into an intolerable and unacceptable situation .... numerous casualties, massive numbers of refugees, and war atrocities. Under these circumstances a Russian invasion would be looked upon as a blessing .... and not as an occupation .... and this is why past scenarios may not apply to today's world and to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.
