Three years after the start of Arab revolutions, the Middle East, the situation is more
explosive than ever. The region saw significant changes that upset the old geopolitical
balances. Here are some keys to understanding the current dynamics.----- A brief return to
the beginning of the twenty-first century is necessary. When the neocons in power in
Washington jumped on the occasion of the World Trade Center to reshape their own way what
they called the Greater Middle East. The result of the military adventures of George Bush
is not at all that they hoped for. By invading Afghanistan, the United States reached the
strategic interests of their Pakistani and Saudi allies who supported the Taliban.
Instead, India, Russia and Iran, supported the Northern Alliance, are the big winners in
this war where NATO bogged down.
The overthrow of Saddam Hussein has resulted in the marginalization of the Sunni minority
that ran Iraq since the end of the Ottoman Empire. It is replaced by the Shiite majority
that brought him to power of Islamist parties close to Iran. It is a blow to the Saudi
monarchy loses an essential part of his device against the Islamic Republic. For the
domination of the United States in the Middle East, the record of the Bush years is
catastrophic, its Gulf allies weakened by them, while the Iranian enemy is strengthened.
The encirclement of Iran policy is a complete fiasco. She gave an opposite result than
expected: the extension of the zone of influence of Iranian power. Today, its political
relations with the Afghan government of Hamid Karzai are cordial economic exchanges
between the two countries develop. Relations with the Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki
are even better. The Iraqi market has become an important outlet for the Iranian economy,
in particular the areas of energy, consumer goods, food, tourism. The two countries are
close to several regional policy issues, especially civil war in Syria. Baghdad passes on
its territory with Teheran regime of Bashar al-Assad and does nothing to prevent thousands
of Iraqi Shiite Islamists to fight in his camp.
Declining power of the United States
The economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union do not give the
Iranian regime. While the country is hit hard, the economy is bad, but it's mostly the
population that suffers the consequences. If sanctions do not work is because many
countries defy the USA. China, India, Russia and even Turkey is a NATO member would
continue to trade with Iran, giving the system the necessary breathing space to survive.
All their attempts failed, the United States decided in 2013 to engage with the Islamic
republic a real dialogue on its nuclear program and sanctions. A significant decision of
the difficulties that American power.
The decline of the power of the United States is a key factor in the current dynamic in
the Middle East. They are weakened by their military failures. With a huge debt and an
economy in crisis, the country is no longer able to cover the necessary expenses to
maintain its global hegemony. Symbol of this fact, the next Pentagon budget provides that
the number of ground forces came under the 500 000 soldiers, the lowest level since 1940.
Faced with the emergence of new rival powers, the U.S. is forced to limit their ambitions
and to set priorities. Today the main threat is no longer Muslim terrorism is the
assertion of Chinese power. The new slogan of the foreign policy of Barack Obama is the
"pivot" to Asia. Reallocation and redeployment of military resources to Asia, which
involve a partial withdrawal from the Middle East. This translates into greater
flexibility for local actors, including Saudi Arabia who feels abandoned by the U.S., see
betrayed regarding negotiations with Iran. External actors such as Russia and China took
the opportunity to advance their pawns.
Race for hegemony over the Sunni
The disruptions caused by the Arab revolutions since 2011 have made the region more
unstable and even more complex situation. Syria is the main battlefield of the
confrontation between the "axis of resistance" (Iran, Syria, Hezbollah) supported by
Moscow, the Gulf monarchies and Turkey allied with the West. But if the first camp is
welded because it's the survival of its components, the second is deeply divided.
Through support for multiple factions of the Syrian opposition, their regional sponsors
are engaged in a power struggle to the tune of hundreds of millions of petrodollars. Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates supported the Salafis as Qatar supports the Muslim
Brotherhood groups. We find the same configuration in Egypt, where the Saudis approve the
overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood by the military while Qatar and Turkey denounce.
That other conflict undermines the Cooperation Council of the Gulf, a safe organization
created in 1981 by the Gulf monarchies to counter the Islamic revolution in Iran. The eyes
of the Wahhabi monarchy, the Muslim Brotherhood has two major flaws: they are dangerous
rivals in the race for hegemony over the Sunnis and is a Republican who threatens the
throne and privileges of many princes movement. Qatar leads an aggressive diplomacy for
several years, defies its larger neighbor by making alliance with the Brotherhood in order
to increase its influence in the Arab world. In early March, their relations have soured a
little more: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have recalled their
ambassadors in Qatar.
Under these conditions it is impossible to make predictions about the future political
landscape of the region. Especially since other factors come into play: the Palestinian
issue is still not resolved, the Kurds advantage of circumstances to advance their demands
for greater autonomy. And economic and social problems at the root of popular uprisings of
2011 have not been solved. Other revolts are possible.
Herv? (AL Marseille)
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