Image: BBC
Ukraine Crisis: Who Will Blink First, Vladimir Putin Or The West? -- Ulrich Speck, Political Analyst, Special To CNN
(CNN) -- Russia's seizure of Crimea last month may have unfolded with a lightning quickness, but Vladimir Putin and the West are now engaged in a much slower match of wits on a chessboard stretching across most of eastern Ukraine.
Rather than going for checkmate, both sides now seem content to wait for the other to make a mistake. Putin made a strong first move by placing 40,000 troops on the border -- and separatists, who are not officially linked to Russia, on the ground in Ukraine.
Now Moscow is waiting for the pro-Western government in Kiev to try to retake the parts of the east it has seemingly lost. In Russia's eyes, any such move from the capital would legitimize an overwhelming counterattack -- a re-run of the Georgia crisis in 2008, when President Mikheil Saakashvili lost his nerve, shot first, and prompted a Russian invasion.
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My Comment: The premise of this article is that it believes that Putin has the power to significantly influence events in eastern Ukraine .... on this point I disagree. I have mentioned more than once in this blog that the people in this region are fiercely independent, and they do not follow anyone's line. It is in this region that the first strikes broke out (among the miners) that help bring down the old Soviet Union. If they did not listen to Moscow then .... what makes anyone think that they will listen to Moscow now.
I suspect that Putin knows the history of this region .... hence this is the reason why there is some hesitation on his part on what to do next. The high costs of such an operation also factors in .... as well as the post-period after an invasion. Ukraine is broke .... and it will require tens of billions of dollar to just stabilize the situation .... money that Moscow is very reluctant to spend. But if the situation in Ukraine implodes .... I can guarantee it that Putin will order the military to invade .... and he will not care who blinks first.