Three years after the start of the uprising, the hope was drowned in blood. Plagued by a
civil war between the regime's opponents, and various rebel factions together, it is also
a place of confrontation between the great powers. ---- The Syrian revolution has turned
into a civil war. This civil war is fueled by power struggles which oppose regional powers
such as Iran and Saudi Arabia and the competing imperialist interests of Western countries
on the one hand, Russia and China the other. ---- One tried to attack Syria, following the
etching that struck Aug. 21 several suburbs of Damascus moment, Barack Obama chose to
agree with Putin to try to halt the conflict and become uncontrollable risk spreading to
neighboring countries. It came out an agreement on the destruction of chemical weapons
regime, and the organization of the peace conference called on Syria Geneva II, which
opens Jan. 22. This is an opportunity to take stock of the situation and forces.
Fragmentation of the rebellion
The side of the opposition, negative trends are reinforced. The marginalization of civil
opposition to the military continued. The Syrian National Coalition based abroad has
little influence in the country. Armed Salafist illegitimate judge as supported by Western
groups, those who claim his authority does not make much of its directives. In the
liberated areas, civilians are not in control, it is the militias who make the law, and
when they are Salafi Opponents of es are imprisoned, tortured-es, es-executed. The
fragmentation of the rebellion has increased. There are now a thousand armed groups of
very unequal importance. Groups with fluctuating allegiances, whose ideology often depends
on the source of funding. Same militia may declare radical Islamist to obtain funds from
the petro-monarchies of the Gulf, or secular democrat or moderate Islamist trend when they
come from the West.
It is impossible to store all in defined categories, but you can draw two movements to
blurred boundaries: the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which is supported by the United States
and the European Union is a motley alliance without cohesion; Salafi Al-Nosra Front and
the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (EIIL), both affiliated to al-Qaeda share a
common ideology but are divided on the strategy, the first wanting down the regime before
initiating an Islamic state, the second wanting conduct two abreast.
Struggle for hegemony
The emergence of new military alliances made the situation even more confusing: November
22, creation of the Islamic Front, December 9, the Revolutionary Front of Syria, Jan. 3,
Army of the Mujahideen.
The struggle for hegemony over the rebellion eventually burst tactical alliance among the
various factions previously. Sporadic clashes since the summer, went crescendo during the
autumn: assassinations targeting competitors leaders; fighting for control arms depots and
equipment; border crossings with Turkey which handles international aid , oil wells. In
early January, it was transformed into an open control liberated zones war, pitting
majority factions EIIL. They criticize it the priority it gives to its own political goals
at the expense of the common struggle against the regime and its aggressive strategy
against its competitors.
Firmly supported by its Iranian and Russian allies, the regime happens reinforced the
Geneva conference. The army, on the offensive in the spring, managed to regain some of the
ground lost earlier. Now the rebels tear, giving him the opportunity to push even his
advantage.
Militia system
However, the dictatorship is increasingly dependent on a heterogeneous constellation of
international and local militias that control more or less. Weakened by desertions and
losses, the army needs these militia called the Popular Committees (CP) to which it
outsources certain tasks like managing checkpoints, the defense of a neighborhood or a
village. CPs are based on ethnic or religious affiliation, they mainly recruited among
minorities who are afraid of the Sunni majority. Last year the plan has incorporated into
a new structure, the Popular Defence Force into a more effective force and better
controlled in practice they retain autonomy more or less pronounced. Note also the
battalions of the ruling Baath party and Syrian Resistance militia combining
Marxism-Leninism, nationalism and anti-imperialism.
Like his opponents, who recruited among Sunni Islamists worldwide, the plan has more on
the contribution of foreign fighters, mostly Shiites. The Lebanese Shiite party Hezbollah
has played an important role in some of the hardest fighting of the war, in particular
when taking the strategic town of Qousseir last May. Few thousand Iraqi Shiite Islamist
highly motivated and well trained fighting within their own militias to the number ten.
Iranian military advisers are present. Outside the Shia, there Palestinians PFLP-GC, the
Arab Nationalist Guard, who professes a pan-Arab and anti-imperialist ideology and
recruiting in Egypt, Lebanon, Iraq, etc..
Peace negotiations
The prospect of Geneva II did not bring a decrease in the intensity of the civil war.
Instead, the various factions have stepped up efforts to reach the negotiations from a
position of strength. The country is permanently fragmented enclaves dominated by military
authorities. In the rebel-controlled as those in the hands of the regime territories, the
population lives mostly arbitrariness, corruption, extortion, looting.
Peace negotiations will be difficult. Must agree regional actors involved in the conflict,
while Iran is excluded from the conference. It also requires that the U.S. and Russia, who
sponsor the process, make mutual compromises. And if they reach an agreement, it will have
to be accepted to the mosaic of Syrian and foreign players who compete on the field. Hope
that Syria knows a lasting peace in the near future is slim. But it is possible to quickly
alleviate the suffering of the population of humanitarian aid should be channeled
throughout Syria, France and Europe must open their doors to refugees es.
Herv? (AL Marseille)
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