F1Outsider brought up a point about Massa and Williams. Even though the car looks very fast, it is still the pre-season. If Williams is able to turn it around and win, it will be akin to what happened with Button and Brawn in 2009.
It's clear that Renault-engined cars are struggling, but will they have their act together by mid-season? Or sooner? The following is a meaningless exercise, but I've listed the winners of the first three GPs in the seasons that Vettel ultimately won the championship. At the beginning of those seasons, did we think that Vettel was going to win it all?
2010:
Bahrain: Alonso
Australia: Button
China: Vettel
2011:
Australia: Vettel
Malaysia: Vettel
China: Hamilton
2012:
Australia: Button
Malaysia: Alonso
China: Rosberg
2013:
Australia: Kimi
Malaysia: Vettel
China: Alonso