The reality of climate change is now more truly challenged. But what are the likely
consequences of this disorder? ---- "This is a dismal entry in which the nineteenth United
Nations Conference on Climate, held in Warsaw since Monday, would probably gone well. But
not how to reconcile Typhoon Haiyan which hit the Philippines and global warming?"[1].
---- Even the newspaper Les Echos, champion of economic liberalism recognizes the reality
of climate change. This does not prevent the oil lobbies to continue their guerrilla war
against any real change of energy model. And to this day, not a government has broken with
this logic. Result, the consumption of fossil fuels continues to increase and even
flashbacks take place, as in Australia, where the newly elected Conservative government in
September announced that scuttled "tools to fight against climate change climate"[2].
While the temperature of the atmosphere has increased by only 0.5 ? C, the consequences
are already measurable. And the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) continues
to revise upward its forecast...
Malaria north
The increase in the average temperature of the oceans and the atmosphere, measured
globally over decades is reflected today by an increase in extreme weather events (heat
waves and fire giants, torrential rains, storms, cyclones... ) each time creating a health
disaster for the population. Already warming induced species migrations, eg insect vectors
of epidemic. Malaria has reappeared in the north and south of the tropics (U.S. epidemics
have emerged in Texas, Florida, but also in New York). It is also reappeared in southern
Europe and Russia or along the Indian Ocean. The frequency of Lyme disease increases, and
its geographical extension, so correlated to the increase in the range of its main known
vector, the tick[3].
0.5 ? C in thirty years
Thomas Veblen, professor at the University of Colorado, studied forest plots in the
western United States[4]. In 30 years, an average warming of 0.5 ? C has already doubled
the rate of tree mortality, promoting drought and pest outbreaks, multiplication with
fire, raising fears of cascading effects on wildlife and ecosystems.
In France, according to INRA, several species, including beech, will not survive in the
southern half of the country[5], and several pests of trees could continue to move north.
Finally, from one generation to another forest species must travel increasing distances to
find a favorable climate. Many species, low "dispersal distances" unable to adapt to the
temperature rise[6].
Warming also has an impact on the oceans. Associated with resource depletion due to
overfishing and ocean acidification entailed the dissolution of increasing amounts of CO2,
changing areas distributions of fish species will increase the difficulties of the fishing
industry.
In total, a 2004 study published in Nature and based on a sample of regions covering 20%
of the Earth's surface shows that climate change will lead, depending on the scenario, the
loss of 15% to 37% of living species by 2050[7]. Such a massive extinction of species will
necessarily damaging consequences for the entire ecosystem of the planet and therefore for
human consumption.
The consequences will not however be the same for all regions. Rising sea levels as a
result of melting ice floes and evaluated between 18 and 59 cm by 2100[8], on the one hand
could overwhelm some islands of the Pacific Ocean or the Indian Ocean (Maldives ,
Tuvalu,...), and secondly threatens the entire population living in coastal areas (500
million people): coastal erosion, groundwater salinity, loss of wetlands, permanent flooding.
Five times more disasters
In a context where reinforcing frequency and severity of climatic conditions, increased
evaporation should increase winter rainfall, except in the Mediterranean countries would
worsen drought.
On temperate and circumpolar areas as a first step, the combination of global warming,
rising CO2 levels and rainfall could increase the productivity of ecosystems. The
agriculture of the northern United States, Canada, Russia and the Nordic countries could
perhaps benefit, even if the signs already visible in these areas forest dieback show that
this could be countered by the attacks on biodiversity.
In summary, measurable today:
- The cost of extreme weather events: the reinsurer Munich Re report of 17 October 2012
(for the period 1980-2011) suggests that this is North America, which has been the
strongest worsening "financial losses events related to the weather,"with more than 30,000
dead and 1,060 billion of losses induced by the management and repair of climate
disasters. The same report found that the number of extreme events has increased fivefold
in the world (and doubled in Europe).
- The direct effect in global agricultural productivity, such as droughts or floods which
in turn hit agricultural production in different regions of the world: "The FAO predicts"
a significant reduction in world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2013 (...) even
with a decline in global demand due to high prices. Production has been affected by
drought in major producing regions, including the United States, Europe and Central Asia
'"[9].
Finally and most importantly, many biologists are concerned about the still uncertain
consequences of the collapse of biodiversity on the balance of the living world and the
ability of mankind to live and food on a planet degraded.
Jacques Dubart (AL Agen)
[1] LesEchos.fr, 1 November 2013.
[2] Le Monde, 15 November 2013
[3] "Effect of Climate Change on Lyme Disease Risk in North America", 2005, EcoHealth -
vol. 2.
[4] See www.rfi.fr.
[5] Forestry France No. 491, March 2006.
[6] "Changes in plant community composition lag behind climate warming in lowland
forests", Nature, 479 (24 November 2011).
[7] "Extinction risk from climate change", Nature, 427 (8 January 2004)
[8] Fourth IPCC report.
[9] www.planetoscope.com/cereales/191-production-mondiale-de-ble.html.
Home »
» (en) France, Alternative Libertaire AL #234 - Climate: The spiral of disruption (fr, pt)