Al-Shabaab Will Emerge Stronger After Nairobi Mall Attack, Warns Analyst -- The Guardian
Islamists want to provoke Kenyan security forces in order to win Somalis' support in city, suggests counter-insurgency adviser
The Somalia-based Islamist group known as al-Shabaab will emerge stronger and more unified after its terrorist attack in Nairobi, and could provide other extreme groups with an example to follow, counter-insurgency analysts warned on Tuesday.
Al-Shabaab's message is that it is "down but not out", it is "losing territory but not people", said David Kilcullen, a former adviser to David Petraeus, then US commander in Iraq, and of Nato forces in Afghanistan.
The purpose of the Westgate mall attack was to send Kenyans a message – it was the consequence of sending troops to Somalia, said Kilcullen, who was in London to launch his book Out of the Mountains: The Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla.
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My Comment: This is the big fear .... that al Shabaab will emerge "bigger and stronger" in the eyes of it's supporters and future recruits .... thereby reversing their losing situation in Somalia. As to what is my take .... I am skeptical that such will be the case .... what I do see are African nations and western intelligence services expanding their targeting of al Shabaab leaders and top commanders for drone strikes and/or special forces operations.