If the Syrian government 's defenses are seriously affected , the trend is that the Assad
regime falls , transforming the Syrian territory in a new Iraq , with the escalation of
sectarian war reaching absurd levels . ---- Initial Comment : On the eve of a U.S. Navy
attack against the positions of the government of Hafez al - Assad , bring back the text
written for the first half of July , forthcoming in the portal . As I explain below ,
unfortunately the Arab Cause and anti - imperialist intentions in the region found
themselves subordinated to the logic of geopolitical pivots of states such as Turkey ,
Iran and Saudi Arabia . The end of a dictatorial regime ends as the beginning of a civil
war between Sunnis and Shiites in large scale. The next decade is pure uncertainty in the
harshest theaters of the board of Eurasia .
The Syrian state had been ruled for decades by a triad . The top officers career linked to
Baath Party ( Arab National ) , a legacy nonprogrammatic the times of pan- Arabism under
Nasser inspiration , the clan of al - Assad - the current , Bashar , like his father Hafez
, acting almost as a secular dictators despots , and , not least , by Alawites , an
offshoot of Shiite Islam origin settled in the region .
It is from these relationships that conform alliances both blocks to support challenged
Baath regime and Assad , as groups that this power against established and
institutionalized - mingling with the state - are formed . Without falling into illusions
typical of a more targeted on the western region, the first exclusion is that the sector
liberal, democratic and secular practically nonexistent in the Syrian rebellion .
Therefore , the revolt is also fundamental rights does not imply building a stable
democracy but the rise to power of groups excluded from it by Assad . If there is no
radical or liberal Democrats believe , still less socialist ideas of any kind are present
there .
The scheme is supported internally by Assad clan and the Alawite magnified by the high
officers still loyal and urban middle class tied to the state. Externally , it has support
for a regional power , Iran and Lebanese armed and theocratic party that this country is
satellite, Hizbalah . The latter tax is Iran's Khomeini , whose intelligence network was
Syria's your sanctuary hall and in the fight against the Zionist presence in southern
Lebanon . In addition to Iran and set Shiites in the region - especially the Iraqis , that
there are government - yet the Syrian government in Putin's Russia is a strategic ally and
receives this global power supply weapons and currency , as well as diplomatic pressure
and media .
The opposition , with the exception of the Kurds in Syria established , organized in the
United Democratic Party ( PYD ) , which have links to the Kurdistan Workers Party ( PKK )
, is composed of Sunnis and supported , directly or indirectly, for two regional powers .
Opponents are dissident armed forces , establishing the Free Syrian Army , irregular force
that the western media mistakenly lists as organic Syrian National Council . This is
unreal and is more of a distorted mirror than a given situation . In the first line of the
clashes are militias of all kinds, notably line Wahhabi jihadists , the same Saudi Arabia
- which supports - including groups from Al - Qaeda . Beside these , fundamentalist
Salafis also irreconcilable with any proposal secular . The other regional power that
supports the opposition is Turkey, and it included the refugee camps and certain mobility
for dissidents in the long common border . Indirectly , the insurgency ends up getting
support of Israel , through the exercise of air supremacy and followed bombings against
Syria .
Although the Assad regime is a dictatorship bloodless and inhuman , the same methods can
and should be attributed to their opponents . The suspected use of Sarin gas fell first
about the Baath forces and , by April 2013, UN investigators revealed evidence of the use
by the fundamentalist Sunni militias . Recently tenebrous images of a fundamentalist Sunni
fighters withdrawing the heart of a fallen enemy on the battlefield embody the kind of
motivation and involvement of irregular anti - Assad militiamen .
The expectations for the expansion of democracy and secular thought are today far from the
Arab Spring and the Syrian Insurgency and Civil War . This space is occupied primarily by
Sunni jihadist creed , both wahabistas as Salafis . I emphasize that these two lines of
thought political- religious societies organize Islamized reinforcing behaviors more
conservative .
Bruno Lima Rocha
This text was originally published on Journalism B , printed fortnightly independent
biweekly Porto Alegre Area .
Related Link : http://estrategiaeanalise.com.br/
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» (en) Anarkismo.net: The civil war in Syria and new conformations in the Arab and Islamic world by Bruno Lima Rocha (en , fr )