The risk of a coup d'?tat in Venezuela continues to be a real one, with more right-wing
media analysis even betting that Nicol?s Maduro will not finish his term. Apart from
political Chavism, the guarantees of acquired rights are in the balance. ---- Nicol?s
Maduro, Venezuela's elected president and political successor appointed by Hugo Ch?vez,
began his government the hardest way possible. The National Electoral Council (CNE)
proclaimed him as head of the executive after the count of the total vote in an election
which saw the participation of 79.17% of the voters. Maduro, leading the PSUV, obtained
50.75% of the vote (7,563,747) and Henrique Capriles, governor of the state of Miranda
representing the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD), received 48.97% (7,298,491). There was
a high level of abstention with more than 20% of the electorate not voting.
The novelty is the strengthened right, winning in seven states, instead of only three as
in the December elections, when Ch?vez was still alive.
The tight difference of only 273,000 votes, is encouraging the opposition led by the
oligarchy to call their constituents out onto the streets and challenge the legitimacy of
the outcome. The demand for a recount is a way to cast doubt on the transparency of a
screening process legitimized by international bodies. It operates as a ploy for the
accumulation of forces on two levels. Inside the Venezuelan right, Capriles is building up
muscle, legitimizing himself as an unambiguous leader, the only valid option for half of
the electorate in the country. In the confrontation with the Miraflores Palace, he says he
can be as hard as his coup allies of 2002 and 2003. If you can overthrow the electoral
process, causing national uproar by means of a recount, so much the better. In the absence
of this possibility, undermining the situation now operating under a new condition - that
of Chavism without Ch?vez - makes victory in the recall referendum in three years' time a
possibility.
In the external arena, the tight margin is animating the USA. The State Department, headed
by the new secretary John Kerry, willing to show service and reap the sort of political
and military victories as Hillary Clinton did, has already taken a first step by
indicating that he would look favourably on a recount. Let no-one be alarmed by the
gradual escalation of street violence and possible attempts at institutional break-ups of
state and municipal governments. They are likely to generate a lot of confusion in the
short term. The goal is to try to prevent Maduro from governing, by forcing him to crack
down on the opposition by use of the institutional path, through the military and the
judiciary. The procedure involves successive national upheavals and shortages, a
fracturing of the PSUV and the high command of Castro in order to create the conditions
for a coup. Difficult years ahead.
Bruno Lima Rocha
Translation by FdCA - International Relations Office
Related Link: http://estrategiaeanalise.com.br/
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