??? a?t?st??f? t?? ???µat?? ?a? t? d???e?s? ?s?? µ????sa? ??a d??spas? t?? e????????, p??ß???e?? p?? t? ???? ?ftasa? st? ap?????f?µ? t???, pe?????fe? se a????s? t?? t? Reuters.T?µ????ta? t??...
p??ß???e?? ?a? t?? ep??e???µat?????a ep?fa??? ??????µ?????? ?a? ep??e???µat??? ?p?? ?.??????µa?, ?.???µp???, ??.S???? e???e? ??at? ?pesa? ???. ??? ??????, a?af??e? ?a?a?t???st???, ep??efa??? ??????µ?????? t?? Citigroup a???se t?? p??a??t?te? ?a e??ata?e??e? ? ????da t? e??? st? 90%, ??????ta? µ???sta ?? p??a?? ?µe??µ???a, t?? 1?/1/2013.
«Ost?s?, ?a?e?? de? p?ste?e? s?µe?a ?t? ep??e?ta? µ?a ???d?? t?? ????da? ap? t? e???, ? ?at???e?s? t?? e???????? [...] ?? p??f?te?e? t??? de?????? ep?p??a?e?, ? st?? ?a??te?? pe??pt?s? p????e?. ?? e??? ??e? a?a??µ?e? ??a?t? t?? d??a????. ?? ap?d?se?? t?? ?µ?????? t?? ?pe???e?µ???? ????? ?p?? t?? ????da?, t?? ?spa??a? ?a? t?? ?ta??a?, ????? ?p?????se?» t????e? ? a???????f?? t?? Reuters.
?p?? ?p?st????e? ?? p??ß???e?? a?t?? e??a? ?p?t?µ?se? t?? p???t??? ????s? st?? ????p? ?a µ?? d?ata?a??e? ? s????? t??.
«?? t?? ?st????, e??a? ?e???a?? ?t? ???sµ???? ap??? ?p?t?µ?sa? t?? p???t??? ????s? st?? ????p? ?a d?at????e? ? a?e?a??t?ta t?? e????????, ?a??? ?a? t?? a?t??t?p? p?? e??a? st? ???µa ?? a??a??? p???t???? st?? ????p? t? de?te?? µ?s? t?? 2012» t????e? t? Reuters ?????ta? a?af??? st?? ????se?? t?? ???, st?? a??a?? st?s?? t?? ????e? p??? t?? ????da, st?? p???t???? e?e???e?? st? ???a µa?.
?eßa???, ?? ?atast??f???????? p??ß???e?? µ??? ??a ???? ?ap?sta?????... µeta??t??ta? t?? ?atast??f? ??a t? 2014.
??d??? ??a t?? ????da ? ?.???µp???, ???st?? ?a? ?? «??. ?atast??f?» p??ß??pe? t??a ?t? ??? ta t??? t?? f????p???? t?? ep?µe??? ?t???, ? e???????? s??asp?sµ?? ?a ?ata??e?se? ?a? ? p??a??t?ta e??d?? ?s?? ep?st???e? st? t?ap???.
??? 1/1/2013 ? ????da ?a ?ß?a??e ap? t? e???...
??? ????, ?a? e?? ? e??????? ß?????ta? ßa??te?a st?? ?fes?, ? ß?aße?µ???? µe ??µpe? ??????µ?????? Paul Krugman d?µ?s?e?se st??? New York ?imes ??a ap? ta p?? apa?s??d??a ????a ??a t? e??a?? ??µ?sµa µe t?t?? «?p??????? ???et? S??t?µa», ??µ??e? t? Reuters.
«?af???? ??e? ???e? e????? ?a de? ?a?e?? p?? t? e??? - a?t? t? µe????, e?att?µat??? pe??aµa t?? ??µ?sµat???? ???s?? ????? p???t??? ???s?- µp??e? ?a a???se? ?a d?a??eta?», ???a?e ? Krugman.
«?e? µ???µe ??a µ?a µa????? p???pt???. ?a p???µata ?a µp????sa? ?a ?ata??e?s??? µe ap?ste?t? ta??t?ta µ?sa se ?????? µ??e?, ??? ?????a» ??e?e a??µ?.
? ?rugman de? ?ta? ? µ???? p?? p???ß?e?e t?? ep??e?µe?? ?atast??f? t?? e??? t? 2012. ? d?se?at?µµ???????? epe?d?t?? George Soros d???se se s????te??? se s???d??? st?? ?ta??a st?? a???? ??????? ?t? ? Ge?µa??a ??e? pe??????? t???? µ???? ??a ?a ap?t???e? t?? ?atast??f? t?? ????p??.
St? s????e?a, t?? ??????, ? Willem Buiter, ep??efa??? ??????µ?????? t?? Citigroup ?a? p???? st??e??? t?? ???pe?a? t?? ?????a?, a???se t?? p??a??t?te? ?a e??ata?e??e? ? ????da t? e??? st? 90%, f?????ta? µ???sta st? s?µe?? ?a a?af??e? ?a? p??a?? ?µe??µ???a.
? ?µe??µ???a a?t? - ? 1? ?a???a???? 2013 - e??a? t?? ep?µe?? eßd?µ?da, t????e? t? Reuters.
Ost?s?, p??s??te?, ?a?e?? de? p?ste?e? s?µe?a ?t? ep??e?ta? µ?a ???d?? t?? ????da? ap? t? e???, ? ?at???e?s? t?? e????????.
???? ap? ??? µ??e?, ?? f???? p?? p???ß?epa? t? t???? t?? e??? ?f?asa? st? ??es??t? t???. ?eta?? t?? ßas???te??? ?atast??f?????? ?ta? µe????? ap? t??? µe?a??te???? ??????µ??????? t?? ??sµ??, p????? e? t?? ?p???? ????? ?? ?d?a t?? ???.
??? µ??e? a???te?a, ?? p??f?te?e? t??? de?????? ep?p??a?e?, ? st?? ?a??te?? pe??pt?s? p????e?, ep?s?µa??e? ? a???????f??. ?? e??? ??e? a?a??µ?e? ??a?t? t?? d??a????. ?? ap?d?se?? t?? ?µ?????? t?? ?pe???e?µ???? ????? ?p?? t?? ????da?, t?? ?spa??a? ?a? t?? ?ta??a?, ????? ?p?????se?.
???µa ?a? ?? p?? apa?s??d???? a?a?e????? t?? p??ß???e?? t???, a? ?a? p??e?d?p????? ??a pe??ss?te?a p??ß??µata st? µ?????.
«? ????p? µe e??p???e µe t?? p???t??? t?? a?t???», pa?ad?????e ? Krugman se a???t?s? t?? se blog t?? p??????µe?? µ??a.
??? ??t?ß???, ? Citi µe??se t?? p??a??t?ta ?a ß?e? ? ????da ap? t?? e??????? st??? ep?µe???? 18 µ??e? st? 60% - p?? s??e???e? ?a e??a? ????? p?s?st?.
?p??????, ?st?s?, a??et?? ??????µ?????? p?? p?ste???? ?t? e?? t? s???????e?µa µ?t??? p?? ??aße ? ????p? ??e? pe?????se? t?? ??tas? t?? ???s??, de? ????? a?t?µet?p?ste? ta ßa??te?a a?t?? t??.
? Krugman ?a? ? Buiter de? ap??t?sa? sta e-mail sta ?p??a t??? ??te?t? ?a s?????s??? ?a? ? Soros a??????e ?a pa?a????se? s????te???, s?µe???e? t? Reuters.
?p?t?µ?sa? t?? p???t??? ????s?
?? t?? ?st????, e??a? ?e???a?? ?t? ???sµ???? ap??? ?p?t?µ?sa? t?? p???t??? ????s? st?? ????p? ?a d?at????e? ? a?e?a??t?ta t?? e????????, ?a??? ?a? t?? a?t??t?p? p?? e??a? st? ???µa ?? a??a??? p???t???? st?? ????p? t? de?te?? µ?s? t?? 2012, s?µpe?a??e? t? d?e???? p?a?t??e??.
?? s?µa?t???te?e? e? a?t?? t?? a??a??? ?ta? ? d?sµe?s? t?? p???d??? t?? ??? ?ario Draghi t?? ?????? ?a ???e? «?,t? ??e?aste?» ??a ?a ?pe?asp?ste? t? e??? - p?? µetaf??st??e se d?sµe?s? t?? ?e?t????? t??pe?a? ?a a????se? µe???? a???µ? ??at???? ?µ?????? ??a t?? st????? t?? e???????? - ?a? ? a??a?? st?s?? t?? Ge?µa??da? ?a??e?a???? Angela Merkel p??? t?? ????da.
?f?? st??µ?se ??a µ??e? ta ?p?? ?a? ta ?at? µ?a? e??d?? t?? ????da? ap? t? ????? ??µ?sµa, e?t??e? ap?f?s?se ?t? ?? ???d???? ap? µ?a e?de??µe?? ap?????s? ?ta? p??? µe?a??te??? ??a t?? ????p?, a??? ?a? ??a t?? d???? t?? p???t???? f???d???e?, s??????e? ? a???????f??.
«?s?? ?p???e? µ?a ?????? st? ?a f??e? ? ????da (ap? t? e???), a??? ?? d?ad??as?e? e??a? p??? d?aspast???? t?s? ??a t?? ????da, ?s? ?a? ??a t??? ?e?t???? t??», e?pe ? Barry Eichengreen, ??????µ?????? st? ?a?ep?st?µ?? t?? Berkeley, ? ?p???? a???a?e? ?p?st????e ?t? t? e??? de? ??e? ep?st??f?.
«??a e??tas? t?? p???t???? t?? ????p?? se ???e? ?a s??e?d?t?p???se?? ?t? ?a ?????? ta p??ta p???e?µ???? ?a ap?t?ape? µ?a d????s? t?? e????????. Ta ?ta? e?a??et??? ?atast??f???, t?s? ??????µ???, ?s? ?a? p???t??? (?a d?a???e? ? e???????)», p??s?ese.
? Capital Economics, µ?a eta???a s?µß????? µe ?d?a t? ??eta??a, ? ?p??a e??e p??ß???e? ?t? µ?a ? pe??ss?te?e? ???e? ?a ß???? ap? t?? e??????? ??? ta t??? t?? 2012, t??a pa?ad??eta? ?t? ?p?t?µ?se t?? ap?fas?st???t?ta t?? ??? ?a s?se? t? e??? ?a? t?? eµp?st?s??? t?? a????? st?? ?p?s??se?? t?? t??pe?a?.
«?p??e? ap??? ?a p??e? pe??ss?te?? ?a???», e?pe ? Jennifer McKeown, ep??efa??? ??????µ?????? st?? Capital Economics, a?afe??µe?? st?? d????s? t?? e???. «???fa??? de? ?a s?µße? f?t??».
S?µa?t??? t?µ?µa ?µ?? p????sa?e ?a? ep?fa?e?? epe?d?t?? ?? ?p???? st????µ?t?sa? f?t?? ?at? t?? e????????.
????te?a t?? ?e??µß??? ? John Paulson, ???st?? d?e????t?? aµe???a????? hedge fund, e?pe ?t? ?? ??µ?e? p?? ?p?st? t? 2012 ?fe????ta? se st????µata ?t? ? ???s? ?????? ?a ?e???te???e?.
G?a ?s??? p??ta?a? st?? a?t??et? p??ß?e??, ta ???d? t??? f?t?? ?ta? ????ss?a?a, a?e???µe?a st? 80% pe??p?? ??a ta de?aet? ??at??? ?µ????a t?? ????da? ?a? t?? ???t??a??a?.
?p?fe?????e ? ???s? a??? ....
? Nouriel Roubini, ? ??????µ?????? t?? ?a?ep?st?µ??? t?? ??a? ??????, ???st?? ?? "??. ?atast??f?" (Dr. Doom) ???? t?? ??fe??? p??ß???e?? t??, ß??s??ta? ap? t?? a??? st? st?at?ped? t?? apa?s??d????, p??ß??p??ta? ?d? ap? t? 2010 ?t? ??p??e? ???e? ?a a?a??????ta? ?a e??ata?e????? t? e??a?? ??µ?sµa.
???a ?p?st????e? ?t? ? ???d???? µa? ?atast??f?? st? ?µes? µ????? ??e? pe?????ste?. ?p????ta? t?? p?? ep?f??a?t???? p??ß???e?? a??et?? s??ad??f?? t??, ? Roubini p?ste?e? ?t? t? 2013 ?a e??a? ???? µ?a ?????? ?at? t?? ?p??a ?? ????pa??? p???t???? ?a ta ß?????? p??a, ap?fe????ta? t?? ?atast??f?.
??ste?e?, ?st?s?, ?t? ? ?µ??a t?? ???s?? ?a ???e? ??a t? e???, µe t??? ???d????? ?a a?apa?????ta? ?at? t? d????e?a t?? 2013 ?a? t?? ????da, ??a ???? µ?a f???, ?a ap?te?e? t? µe?a??te?? ape???.
St? ap??e?? t?? ???s?? t?? ??????, ? e??????? ???t?se t? d????s? st? pa?? p??te, ?ta? ? s??t???t??? pa??ta?? t?? ??a? ??µ???at?a? ???d?se ???a?? t? S?????, a?af??e? t? Reuters.
??t?te, p??s??te?, ? p????p?????? ??t???? Saµa??? ??e? ?ataf??e? ?a d?at???se? t? s????? t?? t????µµat???? ??ß????s?? ?a? ?a ?a??ste??se? ta µ?t?a ??t?t?ta? p?? ??e?????ta? ??a ?a s??e??se? ? ???a ?a ?aµß??e? ß???e?a ap? t??? da?e?st?? t??.
?e t? ???a ?a e?s???eta? st?? ??t? ????? ?fes?? ?a? t? st????? ??a t?? ??ß????s? ?a f???e?, t? ???? t?? ???eta? d?s????te??.
S?µf??a µe t?? p??sfate? d?µ?s??p?se??, ? S????? ??e? p??ß?d?sµa p??te µ???d??, ?atade??????ta? t?? ???d??? p???t???? a?ata?a??? st?? ????a ??p??a st??µ? ?at? t? d????e?a t?? 2013.
«??? ta t??? t?? f????p???? t?? ep?µe??? ?t???, ? e???????? s??asp?sµ?? ?a ?ata??e?se? ?a? ? p??a??t?ta e??d?? ?s?? ep?st???e? st? t?ap???», e?pe ? Roubini st? Reuters.
???µa ?a? ??????µ?????? ?p?? ? Eichengreen eµfa?????ta? ap????µ?? ?a d???s??? ?t? ta ?e???te?a p??asa?, ?p?de??????ta? ßa??? ?fes? st?? e???pe??f??e?a ?a? t?? ???d??? p???t???? ef?s??asµ??.
St? S???d? ????f?? t?? ?e?eµß???? st?? ???????e?, ?? e???pa???? ??ße???se?? ?a??st???sa? t?? e?? ß???? s???t?s? ??a t? ste??te?? d?µ?s????µ??? e??p???s? ??? ta µ?sa t?? 2013 ?a? ?e?a????sa? ?t? ? s?stas? µ?a? t?ape????? ???s?? ?a pa?ata?e? ?a? p??a ap? t? 2014.
«??t? p?? ????µe de? ?at? t? d????e?a a?t?? t?? ???s?? e??a? ??a? ?????? ?p?? ?aµß????ta? µ?t?a, ?? p???t???? ?e????? ?t? ?????ta? ta p??ß??µata, ?????ta? µe sta???µ??a ????a ?a? ? ?at?stas? ep?de????eta? ?a? p??? µe ta spreads ?a a??????ta?. ??µa? s??????? ?t? st? µ????? ?a ß??p??µe pe??ss?te?? a?t? t?? ?at?stas?», e?pe ? Eichengreen.
? Krugman, e?? e?f???e? t?? ??p???? t?? p?? ? ????p? ?at?fe?e ?a ap?t???e? t?? ?atast??f? t? 2012, de? ?pa?a???e? ap? t?? apa?s??d??e? p??ß???e?? t??.
Se p??sfat? a???t?s? ?????? t?? se blog µe t?t?? «Bleeding Europe», pa??µ????e? ta µ?t?a ??t?t?ta? p?? ep?ß?????a? se ???e? ?p?? st?? ????da, t?? ???t??a??a, t?? ?spa??a ?a? t?? ???a?d?a µe «?e?ape?e? t?? ?esa???a», ?p?? ?? as?e?e?? ?p?ß?????ta? se afa?µa?? ??a ?a ??at?e?t??? ?? as???e??? t???. ?a? ?ta? ? d?ad??as?a a?t? ep?de????e t?? ?at?stas? t???, t?te ?p?ß?????ta? se ??a afa?µa??.
???µa ?a? a? t? e??? ??e? a??f?se? t?? p??ß???e?? ??a t? ???at? t??, ta ??????µ??? t?? ??t?t?ta?, ??e? ? Krugman, pa????? t? ???? t??? «a???ß?? s?µf??a µe t? se?????».
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