BEING FLEXIBLE; 9 11 AND OTHER BLACK SWANS



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To survive and be happy, you have to be flexible, and make changes when crises occur.

"There is much more to resilience than simple strength."

This is according to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a Lebanese-Christian American, who has written Antifragile: How to Live in a World We Don’t Understand. (aka Things that Gain from Disorder)

Switzerland, where each little canton has the freedom make big decisions, is more likely to survive and be happy than the USA.


1975 - USA defeated in Vietnam

The USA is an inflexible country.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, for example, reminds us that little Vietnam was able to defeat the big USA.

It is difficult for big centralised countries to be flexible.


Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb wants to teach countries, and people, how to be more resilient.

Taleb is not necessarily to be trusted in everything that he writes.

In his 2004 book Fooled By Randomness, Taleb wrote about societies being hit by surprise events, which he called Black Swans.

He describes 9 11 as being a surprise event.



9 11 was a surprise to the public.

But it was an event that had been carefully planned by people in the Pentagon, and their allies.

Taleb fails to tell us that this, and many other apparently random events, are in fact 'inside-jobs'.

Taleb reportedly made a multi-million dollar fortune during the financial crisis that began in 2007.

Creating 'surprise events' is part of the policy of the Pentagon and its friends.



The attacks in Mumbai, in 2008, are part of a 'strategy of tension' being employed by the Anglo-American-Israeli Axis to ultimately divide and conquer the Middle East and Central Asia.

Creating an “Arc of Crisis”: The Destabilization of the Middle East ...

Bernard Lewis's plan, unveiled at the 1979 Bilderberg meeting, was to support the Muslim Brotherhood, in order to break up Moslem countries, such as Tunisia and Egypt.

Lewis argued that the West should encourage groups such as the Kurds, Armenians, Lebanese Maronites, Ethiopian Copts, Azerbaijani Turks, and so forth. The chaos would spread in what he termed an ‘Arc of Crisis,’ which would spill over into Muslim regions of Russia.

Obama's Brzezinski Plan



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What is Taleb's message?

Taleb writes that people, institutions and countries survive shocks when they are flexible.

Being flexible means making changes, adapting and learning. 

This is being 'antifragile'. 

This is gaining from disorder.

Taleb sees Switzerland as one of the most antifragile places.

It is decentralised and each canton can experiment with its own solutions to problems.

 http://www.ft.com/

Switzerland

Taleb thinks we should:

1. Welcome unpredictable events.

(A car breakdown gives one the opportunity to walk to work).

2. Refuse to believe anyone who offers advice without taking personal risk.

 (Buy Egyptian shares?)

3. Keep institutions small and self-contained.

(If a small bank fails it won't bring the entire system down.)

4.  Build slack into our lives.

(Leave time for holidays?)

5. Recognise the impossibility of predicting anything with too much accuracy.

Pericolo

According to Taleb, we should welcome small disasters as opportunities for improvement.

We should make good use of randomness, uncertainty and chaos.

A child can become stronger as the result of having small illnesses.

A child can become more resilient as the result of getting some exercise.

 http://www.ft.com/

Taoists would agree with some of what Taleb teaches.

He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight. - Sun Tzu