Watching the news about the Scottish referendum on independence, and it is almost stunning how much the stuff parallels Quebec. Let me count the ways:
- Neither Quebeckers nor Scots have a majority that want complete independence.
- The Scottish National Party today and the Parti Quebecois in 1995 don't want a single clear question, and certainly don't want the national parliament having a say over the question.
- The SNP and PQ are both musing about changing the election laws to allow 16 and 17-year olds to vote. A wonderfully clear admission that they are desperate for votes. One only adds new voters to the pool if one cannot get over a threshold without them.
- Speaking of which, what would be enough votes? Fifty percent plus one is the Quebec "standard." But Scotland is in a country that is in the EU (while the EU is still around), and the EU applied 55% as the standard for Montenegro. Hmmm.
However, I need to be clear that these cases may be less than fruitful for social science--there needs to be some variation between two cases to have a useful comparison. Either two very similar cases have a dissimilar outcome, or two different cases have a similar outcome. And I would like to place a bet on an independence referendum failing, just as Quebec fell short in 1995 and is nowhere close today.*
* Indeed, this morning's paper was chock full of stories about the PQ trying to figure out how to get folks enthused about the party and about independence. That they must find ways to get the separatist mojo going provides significant evidence that the PQ and Quebec have won the big battles, making independence or even a confusing referendum that mixes and matches autonomy, confederation, and iendependence unnecessary. Well, unnecessary for being the PQ's raison d'etre. Well, other than running against Montreal. This weekend's meetings has heaps of proposals for shifting yet more resources and power away from Montreal.
