Commander of U.S. Central Command Gen. David H. Petraeus, U.S. Army, talks with members of Combined Joint Task Force - 101 at Combat Outpost Marghah, Afghanistan, on Nov. 6, 2008. DoD photo by Staff Sgt. Bradley A. Lail, U.S. Air Force. (Released)From The Christian Science Monitor:
Control of roads and rural areas vexes coalition effort.
KABUL, AFGHANISTAN - Recent headlines from Afghanistan have read like a history lesson from the Soviet 1980s.
That war "devolved into a fight for control of … the road network," concludes a 1995 US Army study. Militants are now stepping up attacks against American supply routes, destroying some 200 trucks in Pakistan this month.
Anti-Soviet militants controlled "the rural areas," says a former Soviet official. Today's militants have a "permanent presence" in 72 percent of the country, according to a Dec. 8 study.
There are differences between then and now. Yet 20 years later, many problems are similar: The US and NATO control neither the countryside nor the militants' hideouts in Pakistan, and as civilian casualties increase, Afghan anger is mounting.
Read more ....
My Comment: I have mentioned in numerous posts (for the past few months) that the Achilles heel for Nato and our Afghan allies will be the supply routes. Other bloggers like The Captain's Journal have been voicing these concerns for over a year.
Fortunately, we have some advantages.
One big difference between Nato and the Soviets, is that Nato still enjoys a considerable amount of support from the civilian population. Using this support, the goal for Nato and U.S. forces will be to duplicate the Iraq counter insurgency campaign into the Afghan theater. While I do not expect an "Anbar Awakening", civilians can be useful as spotters in pointing out Taliban insurgents and their allies. This alone can be a very effective tool in targetting enemy forces and concentrations.
The key will be manpower .... which it appears will be introduced in the spring of 2009. While this tactic will work in the urban centers, the problem is still the countryside. Predator UAVs with night vision will be effective tools in the fight against the enemy, but there is only so much that they can do. You will still need the manpower to pursue and eliminate the enemy .... but even with future troop levels, this is going to be very hard to do. As for the safe sanctuaries in Pakistan .... that is another can of worms that will have to be opened and contended with.
So .... our we repeating the Soviets? The simple answer is no. But if new strategies and resources are not implemented .... this simple answer will be changing to yes.