Moving Towards an African Spring

George Ayittey writing in Fair Observer:

Courtesy of African Futures

After the Arab Spring erupted in North Africa in the Spring of 2011, there was widespread speculation that it will spread to sub-Saharan Africa. Indeed, it sparked sporadic street protests in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Sudan and several other African countries. But they quickly fizzled -- thanks to brutal crack-down by security forces. Actually, sub-Saharan Africa’s “Village Revolutions” in the early 1990s pre-dates the Arab Spring but since the outcomes are strikingly similar, it would be more useful to compare the two and ascertain what lessons can be earned from them.

Lessons learned:

A few lessons can be drawn from Africa’s Village Revolutions that can be discerned elsewhere. First, not all revolutions succeed. The Iranian 2009 Green Revolution flopped; the 2005 Cedar Revolution of Lebanon self-immolated and the flower revolutions in Eastern Europe wilted. Second, not all revolutions produce desired outcomes. They can be hijacked – as has been the case in Tunisia and Egypt, They were started by the youth but have been hijacked by senile clerics, some in exile for decades. Libya is fractured and in turmoil while the horrific slaughter of civilians by Syria’s Bashar al-Assad continues; over 60,000 dead so far. Elsewhere, a deadly stand-off has settled in Yemen and Bahrain.

Corrupt regimes must first be dismantled:

Third, toppling a dictator is only the first step in establishing a free society. The next step is dismantling the dictatorship itself. It is analogous to having a bad driver with a defective vehicle. After sacking the driver, the vehicle itself must be fixed; else the new driver would land in a ditch. In far too many countries, the second step was either not attempted, debauched or manhandled, which leads to a reversal or hijacking of the revolution. Sub-Saharan or Black Africa’s village revolutions in the early 1990s, which occurred in over 40 countries, provide a treasure trove of revealing insights as to why some succeed while others fail.

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