In this photo released by the US Army on Thursday, Aug. 7, 2008, U.S. Army soldiers from 1st Platoon, G Troop, Task Force 1-35, 2nd Brigade Combat Team move out on patrol in search of weapons caches with an attachment of Iraqi Army soldiers during Operation Iron Pursuit on Monday, July 28, 2008 in 7 Nissan village, Diyala province, Iraq. From Yahoo News/AP:
BAGHDAD - Two Iraqi officials say the U.S. and Iraq are close to a deal under which all American combat troops would leave by October 2010 with remaining U.S. forces gone about three years later.
A U.S. official in Washington acknowledges progress has been made on the timelines for a U.S. departure but offered no firm date. Another U.S. official strongly suggested the 2010 date may be too ambitious.
A timetable is part of a security agreement being negotiated by U.S. and Iraqi officials. Both sides stress the deal is not final and could fall apart over the issue of legal immunity for American troops.
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My Comment: While I can easily forsee U.S. combat forces out within two years, it is hard to see all U.S. forces out within three years. Like Kuwait and Qatar, U.S. forces will be present in Iraq for years if not decades. The political establishments for both the U.S. and Iraq are sensitive to the security needs of the region. Regardless of who is elected in the U.S. or Iraq, this understanding is not going to change. The enormous expenditure that is now going on in the construction of military bases in the desert coupled with planned military purchases by the Iraqi military will ensure U.S. forces and trainers to be in the region for decades.
The debate that is going on behind closed doors is not on how many forces will be needed to stay behind, but under what type of joint U.S.-Iraq jurisdiction that they will follow.