On the eve of the Olympics opening in China, The Claremont Institute looks at China. Rich Country, Strong Arms.
My favorite quote:
During this period of our neglect, China has moved to freeze the nuclear dimension of our rivalry, via its policy of effective parity, which, after deep American reductions, the creation of sea bastions for Chinese ballistic missile submarines, its building of solid-fueled mobile missiles, and its increase in warhead numbers, will become actual parity. (For greater detail on the nuclear balance, see my "China as a Rising Nuclear Power," CRB, Spring 2007.) The China that has threatened to turn Los Angeles to cinder is arguably more casual about nuclear weapons than are we, and may find parity a stimulus to brinkmanship. Who will blink first, a Barack Obama (who even now blinks like Betty Boop) or a Mao Tse-Tung?
My Comment: Mark Helprin understands the long term strategic goals of the Chinese to the tee. Their cultural and political environment has propelled them on a course that will make them the super-power at the end of this century. Dissent, dependence on foreign oil, and ethnic divisions are their Achilles heel .... but they are still barreling forward.
As the U.S. shrinks in its global responsibilities, it will be the countries that surround China that will respond to China's growth and insatiable desire for power and world influence. Japan, Vietnam, India, Korea, Indonesia, Russia, and the Philippines will be the counter-weight to a resurgent China. How China will respond to this will be anyones guess 25 years from now.