As most readers here already know, I've been a strong advocate of Diane Benson for our next Representative in the U.S. Congress since the summer of 2006. I've been volunteering for her since then, whenever she has been a candidate.The 2008 Alaska Democratic Primary race pits her against former Alaska Sate Legislature Representative Ethan Berkowitz. Berkowitz, long lauded by outsiders as our "up-and-coming Democratic Party leader," has been shown to lead Benson in the primary contest in two polls issued months ago. To my knowledge, no recent polling data on this August 26 contest is available. All polls issued so far show both Benson and Berkowitz defeating Young in November. The only reliable poll on a Berkowitz-Parnell matchup, shows Berkowitz losing narrowly.
I've posited that Benson as a November candidate would probably do better against Sean Parnell, the current Lieutenant Governor, and opponent of Rep. Don Young in the GOP primary, than would Berkowitz. I've been asked "why," in comments at this blog, and in conversations and e-mails.
I've also been asked why I think a November Benson candidate helps likely Democratic Party U.S. Senate seat victor Mark Begich more in the polling booth against Ted Stevens than would Berkowitz, should he beat Benson.
Berkowitz came into the Alaska legislature soon after moving to Alaska, fresh out of law school. After a short stint as a prosecutor in Anchorage, he was elected to the State House, where he soon emerged as a leader of his party's organization. It was a minority party, working in a climate dominated by one of the best organized majorities in recent state legislative history, here or elsewhere.
During Berkowitz's tenure in the State House, Parnell was elected to that body, then to the State Senate. In 2002, Parnell went on to become an oil company employee, where he remained until 2006, successfully running in the primary and general elections for the Lieutenant Governor position.
A Sean Parnell November campaign will attempt to portray him as an ally of the most popular governor in the USA. It will compare Parnell's role in - as disgusting to progressives that the legislation was - the crafting of bills that became law, and compare his success to the stymying of attempts by Berkowitz and other Democrats in the legislature to do what they couldn't.
Berkowitz, in his arguments about bad legislation and promotion of good alternatives over the years he served in Juneau, impressed me at the time as an example of why Alaska politicians need to be more like Democrats, than like Democrats suffering some sort of PTSD or battered wife syndrome. He talks now, when accepting union endorsements, of having stuck up for defined benefits as they exist for state tier one employees. But Berkowitz and others on both sides of the late 1990s-early 21st century side of the aisle in Juneau are responsible for the slippage that brought our new teachers from tier one to tier three.
I've got to say, though, that every time I watch Sean Parnell being asked a question Homer Simpson could deal with but Parnell can't, I wonder what this fuss might be about. But, as George Bush illustrates, spin plus money can get a village idiot elected. Twice.
It is important at this time, just before the 2nd quarter of 2008 campaign finance figures get released, to look back at some interesting data I've collected from the 2006 election.
In that race, the Benson campaign received minimal support from the Democrats. The Party's head, Jake Metcalfe, didn't really want to run a U.S. House candidate against Young. After Benson won the primary, the Party gave her out-of-date data, over-charged her for it, and did nothing to help her organization, or to press Party luminaries to endorse the campaign. Neither Tony Knowles nor Ethan Berkowitz stood with her in public to endorse her fight against Young, who she was openly challenging to debate important issues.
Looking at the 2006 races district by district, Benson polled more votes than Knowles/Berkowitz in 19 out of 40 of them. This by a person who had no more than a grassroots organization. Benson polled over Knowles/Berkowitz in Districts 7 though 19, 25, 27, and 33 through 36. In District 26, Berkowitz's old district, Benson received 84 votes less than the Knowles/Berkowitz ticket.
How is it that this magnetic, if somewhat contentious contender, Diane Benson, was able to do so well in the usually predictable Alaska political climate? I think people viewed her as genuine. In many of the precincts in which she excelled, you can see the real Alaska and its cantankerous vitality - Dutch Harbor, Dilligham, Homer, Talkeetna, Haines.
The Diane Benson who wowed the state Democratic Party Convention and shook Ethan Berkowitz in the Fairbanks debate ten days ago, is a viable candidate, still awaiting the recognition and financial support she certainly merits.
District 6 wouldn't download:
Young -- Benson -- Knowles/Berkowitz
District 1 3,142 1,517 1,831
District 2 2,764 2,621 3,011
District 3 2,358 4,454 5,155
District 4 3,319 3,134 4,108
District 5 2,755 2,446 2,825
District 6
District 7 4,180 3,739 3,202
District 8 3,370 4,029 3.586
District 9 2,758 2,166 2,054
District 10 1,866 1,255 1,152
District 11 4,634 1,646 1,361
District 12 3,393 1,497 1,242
District 13 5,314 2,471 2,007
District 14 5,101 1,930 1,428
District 15 4,899 2,306 1,551
District 16 5,281 2,437 2,027
District 17 4,479 2,027 1,992
District 18 1,711 822 793
District 19 2,874 2,140 2,114
District 20 1,771 1,420 1,568
District 21 3,236 2,630 2,828
District 22 2,090 2,320 2,379
District 23 1,992 2,994 3,034
District 24 2,855 2,295 2,431
District 25 2,132 2,331 2,318
District 26 3,120 3,470 3,554
District 27 3,721 2,403 2,386
District 28 4,317 2,614 2,759
District 29 2,825 1,820 1,873
District 30 3,912 2,536 2,692
District 31 4,786 2,830 2,838
District 32 5,040 3,890 3,928
District 33 4,014 2,031 1,646
District 34 4,452 1,918 1,315
District 35 3,258 3,408 2,983
District 36 2,770 1.636 1,625
District 37 2,339 1,511 2,084
District 38 1,946 1,829 3,133
District 39 2,493 1,707 3,139
District 40 2,166 1,577 2,813
Update - Thursday 1:30 p.m: I just got the answer to a question I asked the Diane Benson campaign when I was putting this article together. I asked if either Tony Knowles or Ethan Berkowitz had endorsed her 2006 campaign. The answer - "Knowles and Berkowitz did not endorse Benson in 2006."